facebook
loader

  • Books
  • Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Paperback)
Customer service, please click here

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Paperback)

 by Tetlock, Philip E. | New Book | In Stock
$16.20 10% OFF
$18.00 You save $1.80
Quantity:
Format: Paperback Available to Order
Usually ships within 1-2 business days Earn $0.81 cashback on this purchase
SecureCheckout
EasyReturns
100%Original
24x7Support
Guaranteed
Magsstore has been awarded the safest website to be recommended for users in 2022

Description

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER - NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST

'The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.'--Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are 'superforecasters.'

In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.

Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic.

Summary: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER - NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST 'The most important book on decision making since Daniel. '--Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy. An excellent pick for readers who enjoy polished writing and meaningful themes. An engaging read that combines strong writing with lasting appeal.
This is a Paperback book.

*This book is returnable

Author(s): Tetlock, Philip E.
Book Type: New Book
Genre: Forecasting, Cognitive Psychology & Cognition, Future Studies
Format: Paperback
ISBN-10: 0804136718
EAN: 9780804136716
Language: English
Number of Pages: 352
Publication Date: 2016-09-13
Publisher: Crown Publishing Group (NY)
Weight: 0.5 Pounds

You Might Also Like

Data Analytics & Visualization All-In-One for Dummies

Paperback
$44.99  $49.99

Fluke: Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters

Hardcover
$27.00  $30.00

Fluke: Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters

Paperback
$18.00  $20.00

Forecasting: Principles and Practice

Paperback
$82.77  $89.00

On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything

Hardcover
$31.50  $35.00

Rich Dad's Prophecy: Why the Biggest Stock Market Crash in History Is Still Coming...and How You Can Prepare Yourself and Profit from It!

Paperback
$14.36  $15.95

FAQs

1.)     What condition is Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Paperback)?
 Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Paperback) is listed as "New Book" condition. It comes in pristine, unread condition with no damage or wear.

2.)     Is there any discount I can get on Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Paperback) book?
 We give the additional discounts up to 20% to customers on the selected books. You can check this in the price section if your book falls in the additional discount category or not.

3.)     Are shipping costs included in Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Paperback) price?
 No, shipping costs are calculated separately at checkout based on your selected delivery method.

4.)     Can I return Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Paperback) if I'm not satisfied?
 Yes, we accept returns of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Paperback) in original condition within 30 days of purchase.

Need more details? Click here

Buyer Guide

  • Authenticity: This title Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Paperback) has been sourced from trusted publishers and distributors.
  • Condition: Unless stated otherwise, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Paperback) book is brand new, unused, and shipped in secure packaging.
  • Editions & Formats: Availability may vary (hardcover, paperback, eBook). Please check product details before purchase.
  • Audience: Always review the Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Paperback) book description to ensure it matches your interest (academic, fiction, self-help, children’s, etc.).
  • Delivery & Returns: Standard shipping and easy returns apply as per our store policy.

Safety & Responsibility Notice

  • Some books may contain sensitive, mature, or controversial content.
  • Our store provides books for educational, informational, and literary purposes only.
  • Content within each book reflects the views of the author, not an endorsement by our store.
  • We encourage buyers to review age recommendations before purchasing for children.
  • We condemn hate, violence, or discrimination in all forms.

Discover your next great read with confidence at Magsstore. 100% authentic books from trusted publishers, Secure & eco-friendly packaging, Fast delivery across the USA, Easy returns if you’re not satisfied, Customer support ready to help you 24/7. Whether you’re a student, researcher, or casual reader, our collection brings knowledge, stories, and inspiration right to your doorstep. Shop Now!

You can visit our buyer guide page to get more details.

Write a Review

Note: HTML is not translated!

There are no reviews for this product.